Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 1, 2021

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Wed Feb 10 21:58:55 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @phl43 I think there's probably more exogeneity in the first (spring) wave of lockdowns. Israel has had 3 lockdowns. You can CLEARLY see the first, also clearly the the second (though the effect is smaller) but the third in December? Harder to make out. https://t.co/m1gOxoNtX2 https://t.co/SGhWszd0hd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 10, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Some of the discussion also seems to turn on the weirdly abstract question of what the threshold would be if people stopped taking any precautions whatsoever, when in practice both government-mandated restrictions and personal behavior will relax incrementally over time. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 10, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For sure. I guess what I'd say is it seems better to look directly at behavioral data to tease out the question of lockdown vs. voluntary effects. Like if you compare California (strict lockdown) to Utah (none) you see the same general pattern but some difference in magnitude. https://t.co/GGbL3B2FT4 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 10, 2021 Just a Typo