Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 6, 2021

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Fri Dec 18 14:27:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At the very least, define these categories *narrowly* with some sort of empirical basis. If there are 87 million "essential workers" (as per ACIP) that's not a very useful category; that's more than half the working population in the US (~160 million)! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other key point here (as @mattyglesias pointed out in his newsletter today) is that both "pre-existing conditions" and "essential workers" are highly amorphous categories that will be gamed (especially by the rich and powerful) whereas age is not. — PolitiTweet.org

Agree. The Wales plan is more rational than any of the US plans I've seen. You could probably start mixing in teach… https://t.co/S58lG1yXo1

Posted Dec. 18, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In New York City—which has good data on death rates by age—people age 75+ represent 6% of the population but *49% of COVID deaths*. This is a no-brainer. If your plan doesn't prioritize people in this group, you screwed up and need to start over. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2020