Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Fri Dec 18 14:12:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other key point here (as @mattyglesias pointed out in his newsletter today) is that both "pre-existing conditions" and "essential workers" are highly amorphous categories that will be gamed (especially by the rich and powerful) whereas age is not. — PolitiTweet.org

Agree. The Wales plan is more rational than any of the US plans I've seen. You could probably start mixing in teach… https://t.co/S58lG1yXo1

Posted Dec. 18, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This story is much better than the headline but the people who *really* made a killing off Gullible Trump Supporters weren't the offshore oddsmakers but people who've bet on Biden because they're grounded in something at least vaguely resembling reality. https://t.co/TF7cXjSsFG — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At the very least, define these categories *narrowly* with some sort of empirical basis. If there are 87 million "essential workers" (as per ACIP) that's not a very useful category; that's more than half the working population in the US (~160 million)! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2020