Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 6, 2021

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Thu Dec 17 20:48:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

PREDATOR may nonetheless be better than RAPTOR for forecasting a player's performance in *future* seasons. But we were also using PREDATOR to account for a player's *in-season* performance and adjust his team's rating on that basis, when RAPTOR works better for that. 12/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But if you're forecasting how the Rockets are going to do when both Harden + Russ are still in the lineup, that's less of a problem. Under RAPTOR, the errors literally cancel out. Thus, RAPTOR itself is a TEAM-BASED rating in certain respects, whereas PREDATOR isn't. 11/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So one change we've made is to now use RAPTOR for in-season adjustments. While our preseason projections did quite well last year, the in-season updating was pretty clunky, if I can be frank, leading to some... weirdness by the playoffs, and this should help with that. 13/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020