Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 6, 2021

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Thu Dec 17 20:48:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But what works best for projecting *player* performance may not be optimal for projecting *team* performance. Or at least, that's what we believe after looking at the problem this winter. What looks like "luck" to PREDATOR may really reflect a player's role with the team. 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

PREDATOR was trained by looking at out-of-sample performance, especially for players who switch teams. So e.g. if Harden is traded to the Heat, PREDATOR would theoretically give you a better idea of his performance than RAPTOR. 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Additionally, RAPTOR includes an important property that PREDATOR does not. Basically, it works backward by starting with the team's performance and forcing the player ratings to sum up to the team rating. In PREDATOR this assumption is relaxed. 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020