Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 27, 2020

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Mon Dec 07 15:15:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be honest that's probably for the best, because there are a lot of judgment calls in terms of what the "fundamentals" look like in this election. Is this equivalent to a midterm, in which you might expect a pretty red environment vs. Biden? Maybe not given how Trump is acting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These are just polling averages, FYI. We are not issuing probabilistic forecasts of the Georgia runoffs, not for any philosophical reason—they'll be back in 2022/24—but because our full-fledged Congressional model isn't really designed to handle one-off races like these. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How blue/red is Georgia? That's another sensitive assumption based on how many years you'd want to go back. Is an appointed incumbent like Loeffler weaker than an elected one like Perdue? Probably. Is their stock trading enough of a scandal to sway some voters? Don't know. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2020