Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 8, 2020

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Wed Nov 18 19:26:12 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't get why NYC feels bound to stick by a 3% positivity rule for closing schools when we know more about the virus now, including relatively low rates of transmission in schools. If I were a parent I'd be furious. https://t.co/CfZJPDYENy — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved I'm not super sure why expectations matter here but I also think that some of those forecasts misdiagnosed the macro conditions. Defending seats won in a D+9 environment (2018) presented a lot of downside risk for D's in an era of weak incumbency. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not as though 3% is some tried-and-true, empirically- derived heuristic that's proven robust over many past pandemics. Everybody is just making this shit up as they go along! It's completely arbitrary. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020