Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 3, 2020

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Tue Nov 17 14:05:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor I know you, specifically, have done a lot of work on response rates, have looked at microdata, etc., and may have had reason to think polls would underrate Trump. I don't think that case was strong based on publicly-available info, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor I'd find that more compelling if prediction markets hadn't been completely off their rocker in a pro-MAGA direction from election night onward. These aren't people who had deeply-researched, well-considered theories about polling bias. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This excludes a few races (GA, NH) where the Senate polling was pretty good, but even so, Congressional polls are going to miss more than those for the presidency, maybe around 5-6 points low on the GOP vs. 3-4 for POTUS. — PolitiTweet.org

Senate polls also badly under-estimated GOP support... It wasn't unique to the Presidential race/ Trump. NEW slide… https://t.co/8C5QJQB0u3

Posted Nov. 17, 2020