Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 3, 2020

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Tue Nov 17 13:59:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor I'd find that more compelling if prediction markets hadn't been completely off their rocker in a pro-MAGA direction from election night onward. These aren't people who had deeply-researched, well-considered theories about polling bias. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For posterity's sake, I suppose the caveat to the above is that I can imagine cases being on the decline again by March/April or whenever the vaccine becomes widely available, which could create a messaging challenge. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor I know you, specifically, have done a lot of work on response rates, have looked at microdata, etc., and may have had reason to think polls would underrate Trump. I don't think that case was strong based on publicly-available info, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020