Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Sun Nov 01 20:39:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is why it'll be hard for further polling to move our numbers all that much in the Big 6 states (PA/WI/MI/FL/NC/AZ). One new fairly decent poll of PA will still get only 5% of the total weight there, or thereabouts. A very good poll with a large-ish sample might get 10%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These are the states sorted by the total amount of recent polling. A very recent poll of ~600 people and slightly-above-average quality gets an influence weight of 1. So in Florida, for example, we have the equivalent of 24 recent polls. https://t.co/IpsTCrCdo4 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the next tier of states down, such as GA, TX, IA or NV, further polling could be more influential. However, to the extent there's polling outstanding, most of it seems to be coming from the Big 6 states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated