Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Sun Nov 01 03:14:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In 2016, there was even kind of a dead cat bounce for Clinton when she went to being 2/3 points ahead in national polls after the Comey letter to 3/4 points ahead in the final round. (Yes, she won the popular vote, but she won it by 2 so that was movement in the wrong direction.) https://t.co/a0MRKQXV5T — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plus, there's usually quite a bit of herding in the final national polls, as people are often reluctant to stray by more than 2-3 points in either direction from whatever consensus develops. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I don't get is the quest to "prove" a poll is an outlier by picking apart the crosstabs. If the topline differs from other polls, the crosstabs necessarily will too! Plus there's always some weird crosstab you can find in any poll since subgroup sample sizes are small. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated