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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Sun Nov 01 03:11:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plus, there's usually quite a bit of herding in the final national polls, as people are often reluctant to stray by more than 2-3 points in either direction from whatever consensus develops. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I *don't* care about too much is the last round of national polls. National polls are basically useful for seeing movement when you don't have a lot of state polls. But we have plenty of state polls and (Selzer aside) no particular reason to think there's much movement. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In 2016, there was even kind of a dead cat bounce for Clinton when she went to being 2/3 points ahead in national polls after the Comey letter to 3/4 points ahead in the final round. (Yes, she won the popular vote, but she won it by 2 so that was movement in the wrong direction.) https://t.co/a0MRKQXV5T — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated