Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Sun Nov 01 02:40:05 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So the Selzer poll, which brought our average there from BIden +0.1 to Trump +1.8, about as big a shift as you'll see, brought the race more in line with the fundamentals there. The same would be true if, say, Biden got a couple of rough polls in Texas tomorrow. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing to keep in mind if you see late polling movement in a state is whether the movement is in line with fundamentals. In Iowa, for instance, our model thought Trump "should" have been ahead by 3 points based on polling in similar states, uniform swing, etc. It's pretty red. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are also some states where Biden is underperforming his prior, such as Nevada, Pennsylvania and to a slightly lesser extent Florida. So in the abstract (no, I haven't gotten a sneak peak at any polls) those might be states with some polling upside for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated