Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Sun Nov 01 02:38:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing to keep in mind if you see late polling movement in a state is whether the movement is in line with fundamentals. In Iowa, for instance, our model thought Trump "should" have been ahead by 3 points based on polling in similar states, uniform swing, etc. It's pretty red. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

PA is a state where there's been a fairly big split between live-caller polls and others, with live-caller data tending to show Biden leads in the mid-to-high single digits, whereas online/IVR have more often been in the low-to-mid single digits. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So the Selzer poll, which brought our average there from BIden +0.1 to Trump +1.8, about as big a shift as you'll see, brought the race more in line with the fundamentals there. The same would be true if, say, Biden got a couple of rough polls in Texas tomorrow. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated