Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Sun Nov 01 00:16:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, in practice, pollsters may sit on their outliers or rejigger them rather than publish as in. But *good* pollsters like Selzer or ABC/WaPo *do* go with their numbers. So you'll get the occasional Biden +17 in WI or Trump +7 in IA. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I do think people overthink things some times. In an 800-person poll, the margin of error for the difference between candidates is ~7 points. And 1 in 20 polls will fall outside that margin of error, i.e. be more than 7 points away from the true number. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NathanJRobinson I'm sure assholes like you would give "my profession" a hard time in pursuit of whatever vainglorious angle you're trying to play. But 10% things happen 10% of the time and empirically based on our forecasts that's exactly how often they do happen. https://t.co/8oqu1OmvAz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated