Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Sun Nov 01 00:14:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I do think people overthink things some times. In an 800-person poll, the margin of error for the difference between candidates is ~7 points. And 1 in 20 polls will fall outside that margin of error, i.e. be more than 7 points away from the true number. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Certainly Trump's best result in a high-quality poll in a while. We have gotten/will get lots more high-quality polls though and there haven't been many others with results like this. — PolitiTweet.org

Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41. That's the same margin as their final poll four ye… https://t.co/bTp8KrSqjg

Posted Oct. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, in practice, pollsters may sit on their outliers or rejigger them rather than publish as in. But *good* pollsters like Selzer or ABC/WaPo *do* go with their numbers. So you'll get the occasional Biden +17 in WI or Trump +7 in IA. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2020 Hibernated