Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Mon Oct 26 18:42:22 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@IChotiner In the abstract, I guess that's right (early vote = less potential for late swings) but I also have no idea if pollsters are accounting for the early vote properly which creates some additional uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By contrast, our fancy model puts Trump's chances at 13%, in part because it also uses data from pre-1980 when polling errors were more common. But that's not so different than 10% and it's good to pass a sanity check like this. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our current trifecta chances: https://t.co/He5gzzliWS — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated