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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Mon Oct 26 18:20:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Model gut check: * Biden leads by 5 points in PA, the most likely tipping point * In 2 of the past 10 elections, there's been a 5+ point swing between polls now and the final result. * Assume a 50/50 chance such a swing would favor Trump. * That gives Trump a 10% chance. — PolitiTweet.org

On this day in the polls... 🤖 @todayinpolls

Oct. 26: Election day is in 8 days. Here's how polls looked on this day in... 1980: Dem margin +0 (actual = -10)… https://t.co/59Zgrdtex5

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess that doesn't totally answer your question @kmedved but in general, the firms that are doing good enough work to diverge from the consensus *and have reason to think they're right about it* are the firms with good reputations that may not want to risk them. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By contrast, our fancy model puts Trump's chances at 13%, in part because it also uses data from pre-1980 when polling errors were more common. But that's not so different than 10% and it's good to pass a sanity check like this. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated