Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Mon Oct 26 17:43:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess that doesn't totally answer your question @kmedved but in general, the firms that are doing good enough work to diverge from the consensus *and have reason to think they're right about it* are the firms with good reputations that may not want to risk them. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3. Some high-prestige academic and media pollsters may be scared to publish a perceived outlier very late in the race, when they think it could hurt their reputation. For most of the year, these pollsters are the ones you trust NOT to herd. But sometimes their final polls are 🤔. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Model gut check: * Biden leads by 5 points in PA, the most likely tipping point * In 2 of the past 10 elections, there's been a 5+ point swing between polls now and the final result. * Assume a 50/50 chance such a swing would favor Trump. * That gives Trump a 10% chance. — PolitiTweet.org

Oct. 26: Election day is in 8 days. Here's how polls looked on this day in... 1980: Dem margin +0 (actual = -10)… https://t.co/59Zgrdtex5

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated