Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

Created

Mon Oct 26 17:40:15 +0000 2020

Likes

232

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. Some partisan and quasi-partisan pollsters seem to play a lot of games with the 538 and RCP averages. They don't want to stray *too* far from the average, but they'll often show results that are like the 538 or RCP average shifted by 2 points toward their side. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think there are basically 3 groups of polls that herd. 1) Some (certainly not most or all) online or IVR polls with crappy raw data seem to look to live-caller polls for guidance. They tend to stay pretty close to the averages throughout the year. — PolitiTweet.org

Q. for @NateSilver538 - what exactly is the motivation behind pollster herding? I get it keeps your poll from 'look… https://t.co/QbD3ggkFPi

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3. Some high-prestige academic and media pollsters may be scared to publish a perceived outlier very late in the race, when they think it could hurt their reputation. For most of the year, these pollsters are the ones you trust NOT to herd. But sometimes their final polls are 🤔. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated