Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Thu Oct 22 22:37:03 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Yeah, especially since it's those folks who are more likely to not ultimately have their vote counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I'm not sure I buy that conditional on not having voted yet, a Democrat who says they're going to vote on Election Day is less likely to do so than a Republican. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think I'm making a more subtle point here, which is that a 15% vs. a 35% probability isn't highly actionable in the context of the 2020 presidential election in particular, i.e. it probably won't/shouldn't change your behavior, nor how you *feel* about the election. — PolitiTweet.org

I don’t get this. Yeah I get Bayesianism, but Bayesian probability is an epistemic state of affairs not a feature o… https://t.co/iShBeZ29Hr

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated