Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Thu Oct 22 22:33:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I mean I think the way to do it is just to use weighted turnout probabilities where "already voted" gets a slightly higher weight (though not 100% since people can lie and ballots can be spoiled) but you also get the long tail of unlikely voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OTOH, some people who are deemed to be likely voters *don't* vote. So the upside case for Dems is if 100% (or more like 98% since there's some ballot spoilage) of the already-voted "likely voters" vote whereas say only 85-90% of election-day likely voters actually follow thru. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I'm not sure I buy that conditional on not having voted yet, a Democrat who says they're going to vote on Election Day is less likely to do so than a Republican. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated