Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Tue Oct 20 22:49:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, our *forecast* is for a Biden popular vote win by 8.2 points, notably smaller than his lead in national polls (+10.3). That's because i) the forecast is mostly based on state polls, which been a bit less bad for Trump and ii) the model still expects a pinch of tightening. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of that is because Trump's better polls, in the context of what we've seen recently, means state polls that look like they did before the debate (i.e. consistent with a 7-8 point Biden national lead), which is still not a great position to be in with 14 days to go. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@billscher @ForecasterEnten NYT, which I think is even more aggressive than 538 about weighting toward higher-quality polls (our weights aren't actually *that* strong) has it as 7. https://t.co/Yz4fwJqrDN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated