Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 29, 2021

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Sat Oct 17 14:54:22 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This means there might not be as much of a blue shift in states with late-counted mail ballots, especially ballots that arrive after Election Day in states that allow that, as people might assume. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If (as this data shows) Dems are returning their ballots sooner, then mail ballots cast closer to Election Day—which in many states, will also be counted later—may not be as D as mail ballots overall. They could even wind up being R-leaning, conceivably. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also keep in that in the world in which the race is close enough for this to matter is probably a world in which Trump has made a fairly big comeback to close the race to say Biden +5. If there's late movement toward Trump, late-received mail ballots might not be so blue at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated