Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2021

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Fri Oct 16 19:59:59 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People talk about how stable polls of the presidential race are but... do you know what's *really* stable? Polls of how people feel about Congress. https://t.co/7mfucyRAFG https://t.co/39nYTjH3Ud — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So you get a big cluster of outcomes at around Biden 413 electoral votes, which is where he wins all the toss-ups / lean R states (including Texas) but little if anything beyond that, although adding AK to that map (so 416 EV) also comes up decently often. https://t.co/HKvHyV4ANB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And in general, in Senate races, you should be skeptical of sharp shifts in the polls and take a fairly long-term average. One or two polls showing, say, SC or AK or MI tied don't necessary mean that future polls will say that if the incumbent has been ahead in the past. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 16, 2020 Hibernated