Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2021

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Thu Oct 15 20:19:59 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing about 2016 is it wasn't just that our model gave Trump a better chance than other models/conventional wisdom, but also that we really tried to lean into that with our headlines, on social media, etc. We were quite adamant about pointing out that Trump had a decent shot. https://t.co/GS3gC15WEp — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Doesn't mean he can't win. There are several examples here where the polls were *almost* wrong enough. Also, our model uses data dating all the way back to 1936, when there were far fewer polls but the ones we had did poorly in some years. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We actually worried toward the end that we were overdoing it to some degree—not with the model itself, but that we tended to focus a lot more on Trump 30% chance than Clinton's 70%. And I think we probably would have gotten some crap for it if Clinton had won. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 15, 2020 Hibernated