Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 21, 2021

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Thu Oct 15 19:48:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Doesn't mean he can't win. There are several examples here where the polls were *almost* wrong enough. Also, our model uses data dating all the way back to 1936, when there were far fewer polls but the ones we had did poorly in some years. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The largest error in here is 5.9 points (1996), which is smaller than Trump's current deficit in Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping-point state. — PolitiTweet.org

The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 19 days until E-Day: 2020: Biden+10.5 2016: Clinton+6.9 2012: Romn… https://t.co/sK8IFeafKq

Posted Oct. 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing about 2016 is it wasn't just that our model gave Trump a better chance than other models/conventional wisdom, but also that we really tried to lean into that with our headlines, on social media, etc. We were quite adamant about pointing out that Trump had a decent shot. https://t.co/GS3gC15WEp — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 15, 2020 Hibernated