Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Mon Oct 12 19:07:44 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's also an element of game theory here. It can be dangerous you aren't spending resources on a state and the other campaign is on offense there, e.g. maybe GA or OH wouldn't be the tipping-point state ordinarily, but it could be if only Biden spent on them. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ad spending here, especially for Trump, is tilted toward the *closest* states rather than the *tipping-point* states, which is generally a mistake if your goal is maximizing 270+ EV although might make sense if you think that margin of victory matters. — PolitiTweet.org

Here's where Biden/Trump spent $$ on Facebook ads last week: BIDEN - Spent $6.5M (down ~$700K from previous week)… https://t.co/bvMYnE9Cd0

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But instead of spending a bit there as a hedge or deterrent, the Trump campaign is invested quite heavily in those states and underspending in some of the more likely tipping points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated