Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 30, 2021

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Tue Oct 06 19:06:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Let's say masks reduce transmission by 60% other things held equal, but people respond by going out and being around people 30% more often. So instead of reducing COVID spread by 60%, you reduce it by about 45-50% instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Related to this, but I *hate* the "this will give people a false sense of security" argument, at least when applied to measures that *really are* effective (e.g. masking, testing) though not perfect. — PolitiTweet.org

This piece is on the money. It's been clear since March that we should be cobbling together lots of imperfect solut… https://t.co/BlgFGTkixF

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A couple of implications: First, that's not a *false* sense of security. It's a *correct* sense of security and a response that indicates people are managing hard tradeoffs. I'd prefer to reserve the "false" label for "sanitization theater" interventions that have little effect. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated