Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 30, 2021

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Tue Oct 06 15:01:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Monmouth has Biden with an 8 or an 11 point lead in Pennsylvania, depending on which version of their likely voter model you prefer. That's an awfully poor result for Trmup given that Monmouth's state polls had been a bright spot for him lately. https://t.co/s32ZGD656G — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffma @paulg @Betcris No, sophomoric is exactly the right term. It's people who think they're smart enough to beat 538/RCP etc but have not put in the many many hours that takes. I talk to these people, they are my friends, I like them, but they fall into that category. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The one saving grace for Trump is that Monmouth uses small-ish sample sizes (500 here, 400 in their previous polls) so they can bounce around a lot. They had Biden up 7-10 points in July but only 1-3 in August. Still, a really bad number for Trump here. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated