Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 30, 2021

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Tue Oct 06 13:08:37 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffma @paulg @Betcris Instead, you have people with some adjacent knowledge, e.g. in finance or sports betting or maybe people who understand politics but not polling/forecasting. While there are exceptions, those folks will tend to be pretty big whales betting in a domain where they're inexperienced. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffma @paulg @Betcris There might be OK liquidity, but not fantastic, and another issue is that elections are rare enough that it would be hard to make a living betting on them (or to go broke by losing those bets). So you don't get the professionalization of the field. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffma @paulg @Betcris No, sophomoric is exactly the right term. It's people who think they're smart enough to beat 538/RCP etc but have not put in the many many hours that takes. I talk to these people, they are my friends, I like them, but they fall into that category. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated