Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 30, 2021

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Tue Oct 06 13:05:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffma @paulg @Betcris There might be OK liquidity, but not fantastic, and another issue is that elections are rare enough that it would be hard to make a living betting on them (or to go broke by losing those bets). So you don't get the professionalization of the field. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffma @paulg We have been on the right side of the markets in basically every election since FiveThirtyEight was founded with a huge ROI. Way different than sports where you have a much more sophisticated player base and more liquidity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffma @paulg @Betcris Instead, you have people with some adjacent knowledge, e.g. in finance or sports betting or maybe people who understand politics but not polling/forecasting. While there are exceptions, those folks will tend to be pretty big whales betting in a domain where they're inexperienced. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated