Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 30, 2021

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Tue Oct 06 12:42:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@paulg It's because political betting markets are populated by people with a sophomoric knowledge of politics. There are way too many excuses made for them when they have a poor track record. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Indeed, our national polling average is up to Biden +8.8 after adding the CNN poll and the USC tracker. Our popular vote *forecast*, which is mostly based on state polls and has some mean-reversion baked in, is at Biden +7.5 by contrast. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/z62yVVXr9k — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trumps "it's just the flu!" messaging on COVID is likely to be quite unpopular, but it will be even more so if he's also still demonstrably suffering from personal health problems caused by COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated