Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 30, 2021

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Tue Oct 06 12:14:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Indeed, our national polling average is up to Biden +8.8 after adding the CNN poll and the USC tracker. Our popular vote *forecast*, which is mostly based on state polls and has some mean-reversion baked in, is at Biden +7.5 by contrast. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/z62yVVXr9k — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In fact, it's good! It's good that pollsters are publishing these results instead of sitting on them. And this is one of those times when a large movement in the race is *plausible*. But we have a lot of polling at it mostly suggests more modest gains for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@paulg It's because political betting markets are populated by people with a sophomoric knowledge of politics. There are way too many excuses made for them when they have a poor track record. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 6, 2020 Hibernated