Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Sep 28 22:13:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the background, the model gets a bit more confident in Biden with every day that passes, though we're also seeing a small "convention bounce adjustment" wear off as more recent polls replace post-RNC polls. Has lead to a very steady forecast overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's really quite a high density of polls both nationally and in the major swing states (which is a good thing!) so no one poll is really moving our forecast all that much. It has been very steady at Biden ~77% in recent days (n.b. forecast assumes a free and fair election). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @JonWalkerDC 100%. And public health communicators are put in a rough spot by that. But given that we still are left to rely fairly heavily on limiting in-person social interaction, that's a big ask of people when we're 6 months into this thing and probably talking about another 6-9 months. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated