Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Sep 28 22:10:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's really quite a high density of polls both nationally and in the major swing states (which is a good thing!) so no one poll is really moving our forecast all that much. It has been very steady at Biden ~77% in recent days (n.b. forecast assumes a free and fair election). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's lead has crept up to 5.2 points in Pennsylvania, though with a split between the live caller polls, which tend to show leads in the mid/high single digits, and online/IVR polls, which show a tighter race. ABC/Post poll also coming here soon. https://t.co/wKbW02AGO5 https://t.co/wj95p6kqMz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the background, the model gets a bit more confident in Biden with every day that passes, though we're also seeing a small "convention bounce adjustment" wear off as more recent polls replace post-RNC polls. Has lead to a very steady forecast overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated