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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Sep 28 13:53:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So: Uncertainty is no longer quite so high. Biden has the largest lead at this point of any candidate since 1996. And the candidate who led at this stage won the popular vote every time since 1976, though they lost the Electoral College twice.* — PolitiTweet.org

Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot

The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 36 days until E-Day: 2020: Biden+7.3 2016: Clinton+3.7 2012: Obama… https://t.co/P4VtbUYQu9

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be fair, this ^^^ is an oversimplification. Decided voters can sometimes change their minds. Or polls can be wrong and estimate turnout incorrectly. But empirically, it's not super easy to come back when your opponent is already at ~50%. Very different than 2016, BTW. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* That is the rub, of course. Biden's lead in the tipping-point states is more like 4-5 points. And you can see some 4-5 point swings in the table here (1980, 1988, 1992). If such a swing favors Trump, he could win. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated