Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sun Sep 27 23:02:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be fair, this ^^^ is an oversimplification. Decided voters can sometimes change their minds. Or polls can be wrong and estimate turnout incorrectly. But empirically, it's not super easy to come back when your opponent is already at ~50%. Very different than 2016, BTW. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And keep in mind Biden is already very close to or above 50% in many potential tipping-point states, meaning that Trump needs to win nearly all of the undecideds. Minnesota 50.8 Wisconsin 50.7 Michigan 49.9 Pennsylvania 49.7 Nevada 48.8 Arizona 48.5 Ohio 47.9 North Carolina 47.5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So: Uncertainty is no longer quite so high. Biden has the largest lead at this point of any candidate since 1996. And the candidate who led at this stage won the popular vote every time since 1976, though they lost the Electoral College twice.* — PolitiTweet.org

The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 36 days until E-Day: 2020: Biden+7.3 2016: Clinton+3.7 2012: Obama… https://t.co/P4VtbUYQu9

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated