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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not persuasive to cite 2000 because 2000 involved an extraordinarily close vote (within 0.009%) in which it was genuinely ambiguous who won. The odds of having that close a result in a tipping-point state are very low. The Q is what Trump could do in a less-close race. — PolitiTweet.org

People on this site are saying it's too unlikely to take seriously the possibility that a Republican candidate for… https://t.co/mGzmo2sVP5

Posted Sept. 25, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

No. 3: The perception that Trump will steal the election could lower turnout No. 4: The perception that Trump will steal the election could cause strategic blunders by Democrats No. 5: Either side could have trouble accepting the result even if the election ends up being fair — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 25, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins To me, the story needs to be covered differently if it's mostly about harm Trump does by undermining trust in the democratic process, as opposed to an actual, coherent plan to steal the election. Obviously there is some of both, but we need some assessment of the probabilities. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 25, 2020 Hibernated