Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Sep 18 15:08:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

“Biden’s doing super well in AZ *and* in WI/MN/MI but *not* FL or PA” is a story that’s a bit hard to reconcile if there are uniform swings among demographic groups. So either there’s some secular stuff going on in these states or the polling averages are noisy/wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It’s definitely a little weird. Maybe there are secular trends in both states where AZ is going to do that CO/VA thing where it goes from red to blue without spending much time at purple, and maybe in FL the people who self-select to retire there are increasingly MAGA. But weird. — PolitiTweet.org

Another question is, if white seniors are the sweet spot for a Trump -> Biden shift, why Biden isn't doing better i… https://t.co/HaCZ2g…

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes If Biden were polling better in PA, then maybe there’s a story where actually things are just going terribly for Trump everywhere but trends in FL happen to favor him. So maybe it’s PA that’s the hard one to explain. Then again, Biden was polling well in FL earlier this year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated