Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Sep 18 12:01:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As charmingly explained here, the difference in the model versions reflects the fact that while Democrats' polling in individual Senate races is quite strong, fundamentals and expert ratings reflect a somewhat uphill battle. https://t.co/ByySuGC8cD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Democrats are slight favorites (58%) to win the Senate according to the "Deluxe" version of our model, which we are treating as the default this year. Their advantage is a bit heavier in the "Classic" (64%) and "Lite" (68%) versions. https://t.co/eev4w6wba9 https://t.co/1aL1HnQXdk — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why uphill? Democrats *probably* need 4 or 5 pickups, depending on the presidency, since Doug Jones is an underdog in AL-Sen. A lot of these races are against incumbents in red states. Still, Democrats have so many opportunities (~12!) that they're slight favorites to do it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated