Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Sep 17 11:45:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's something odd about the USC poll that makes it hard to interpret. The poll consists of a panel of people who are periodically asked about their vote. Nothing inherently wrong with this; can be a good way to detect changes in voter preferences. https://t.co/bmB61cZ8mX — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I can't believe, after 2016, that people are still modeling the Electoral College as though each state is independent and giving Biden a 99.5% (?!?) chance of victory. State polling errors are highly correlated. This is bad math and is misinforming people. https://t.co/Jw1T8zGhX7 https://t.co/gByInNiCgE — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But they're implementing it in a very strange way. While their poll shows people who responded over the past *7* days, people are only asked to respond once every *14* days. (They then have 14 days to respond.) https://t.co/oCAa4pFFNu — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 17, 2020 Hibernated