Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Sep 17 04:04:22 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I can't believe, after 2016, that people are still modeling the Electoral College as though each state is independent and giving Biden a 99.5% (?!?) chance of victory. State polling errors are highly correlated. This is bad math and is misinforming people. https://t.co/Jw1T8zGhX7 https://t.co/gByInNiCgE — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@skepticalsports I think there's a utilitarian defense of it that it got people on the same page in the short run, and the short run mattered a lot and was pretty important, but I think that defense should concede that it created confusion later. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's something odd about the USC poll that makes it hard to interpret. The poll consists of a panel of people who are periodically asked about their vote. Nothing inherently wrong with this; can be a good way to detect changes in voter preferences. https://t.co/bmB61cZ8mX — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 17, 2020 Hibernated