Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Sep 16 19:59:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing: Especially with ABC/WaPo and NYT Upshot/Siena leaning heavily into state polls this year, you do see higher quality in the state polls on average. That's where most of the live-caller data is going. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The twist here is that PA and FL are probably the two most important states so they're really hoping to keep Trump's hopes afloat. Still, it's pretty hard to tell if it's tightening or not, and also if there are distinctive regional patterns or it's just kind of random. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, convention bounces can persist a bit longer than people might assume. Our empirical analysis says it can affect polls for ~3 weeks from the final date of the convention. We're still (barely) within that period, and keep in mind that some polls are released with a lag. — PolitiTweet.org

If the next wave of polls, ideally with some national confirmation for stronger trendlines, shows something more li… https://t.co/l3rIsUFfer

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated