Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Sep 16 19:47:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The twist here is that PA and FL are probably the two most important states so they're really hoping to keep Trump's hopes afloat. Still, it's pretty hard to tell if it's tightening or not, and also if there are distinctive regional patterns or it's just kind of random. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More on that state vs. national poll discrepancy. Biden's lead in our national polling average has shrunk from +8.4 pre-conventions to +6.9 now. But in swing states, he's basically unchanged on average, with gains in AZ/MN/etc. offset by declines in PA/FL/etc. https://t.co/LceSE7OC0K — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing: Especially with ABC/WaPo and NYT Upshot/Siena leaning heavily into state polls this year, you do see higher quality in the state polls on average. That's where most of the live-caller data is going. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated