Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sun Sep 13 14:14:37 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A slight complication is that we're coming out of the period where you could attribute Trump gains to a convention bounce, though we're not completely out of it yet. So if Trump has "permanently" chopped a point or so off Biden's lead (from 8/9 to 7/8) that's something for him. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Second, it's mid-September, which means the point where polls start to hone in on a more accurate result. So the mere passage of time helps Biden. This is especially so in our model since it expects the race to (slightly) tighten; so any day of non-tightening is good for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even so, Trump needs the race to tighten more quickly than that. A candidate with a 7-8 point deficit post-conventions is a heavier underdog than one with a 8-9 point deficit pre-conventions, because the reduction in uncertainty from the passage of time outweighs the small gain. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 13, 2020 Hibernated