Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sun Sep 13 14:06:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Second, it's mid-September, which means the point where polls start to hone in on a more accurate result. So the mere passage of time helps Biden. This is especially so in our model since it expects the race to (slightly) tighten; so any day of non-tightening is good for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

First, we've had very abundant polling over the past two weeks, both on the national level and also in many states. That makes any one poll less influential. If the race is tightening—or Biden's lead is expanding—the model will need to see that consistently over several polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A slight complication is that we're coming out of the period where you could attribute Trump gains to a convention bounce, though we're not completely out of it yet. So if Trump has "permanently" chopped a point or so off Biden's lead (from 8/9 to 7/8) that's something for him. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 13, 2020 Hibernated