Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Sep 11 20:34:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We find that there still *is* an advantage from casting more votes across party lines, i.e. moderates and "mavericks" continue to overperform other factors held equal, but there is so much party-line voting these days that few members of Congress fall into that bucket anymore. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The candidate quality measures we use in our model are experience (highest elected office held), fundraising and the presence/absence of scandals. All of those are becoming LESS predictive. In general, the incumbency advantage is decreasing, also. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Incidentally, you may notice that a LOT of the prominent Senate challengers this year have little or no experience in elected office. That doesn't seem to be as much of a disadvantage as it once was. You can run a perfectly decent campaign as a "generic" Democrat or Republican. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated