Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Sep 11 20:31:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The candidate quality measures we use in our model are experience (highest elected office held), fundraising and the presence/absence of scandals. All of those are becoming LESS predictive. In general, the incumbency advantage is decreasing, also. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not hugely surprising, but we find—in running regressions on every House race since 1998 and every Senate race since 1990—that the importance of candidate-quality measures is decreasing, while the importance of state or district partisanship is increasing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We find that there still *is* an advantage from casting more votes across party lines, i.e. moderates and "mavericks" continue to overperform other factors held equal, but there is so much party-line voting these days that few members of Congress fall into that bucket anymore. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated