Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 1, 2021

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Wed Sep 09 18:41:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Redistrict @FiveThirtyEight Our *polling average* has Arizona as the tipping-point state now, where Biden is +5.1, versus +7.6 nationally. Our *forecast* has Pennsylvania as the tipping-point state at Biden +4.3, versus +6.6 nationally. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @foxjust @StaceyShick Some if of the *very* high-end restaurants in NYC are actually fairly large and/or well-spaced out. That's part of the luxury you're paying for. It's the bistros that will have more issues, although many can use an outdoor/indoor combo for a few weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Typically likely voter polls help Republicans but hurt incumbents. Since Trump is a Republican but an incumbent, our prior was that Trump would only gain 1 point or so from RV>LV. And that's actually been pretty close so far; he's gaining maybe 0.5 points or something on average. — PolitiTweet.org

Hey, polling mavens: is it me or has the likely voter/registered voter partisan margin been flipped? I used to reme… https://t.co/v2jvGIfTw1

Posted Sept. 9, 2020 Hibernated